(Bloomberg) — Oil edged lower after a fifth weekly gain as investors weighed the demand threats from unrest in the U.S. and deteriorating relations between Washington and Beijing against signs that OPEC+ may extend supply cuts.
Futures in New York declined around 1% toward $35 a barrel after swinging between gains and losses earlier. OPEC and its allies will discuss prolonging production curbs by one to three months, according to a delegate, as the cartel considers bringing forward its next meeting a few days to June 4. The current agreement calls for the output cuts to ease from July.
The positive news on supply came as violent protests in dozens of U.S. cities sparked by the death of an unarmed black man in police custody clouded the demand outlook in the world’s largest economy and also stoked concerns about a second wave of infections. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s response on Friday to China’s moves to assert more control over Hong Kong stopped short of imposing immediate sanctions, aiding market sentiment.
Crude surged a record 88% in May driven by the OPEC+ deal, involuntary production cuts in the U.S. and a return of demand in China. However, prices are still well below where they were at the beginning of the year and without additional reductions in supply, the rebound in consumption will need to show a sustained improvement for oil to keep rallying.
West Texas Intermediate for July delivery dropped 0.7% to $35.25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 9:58 a.m. in Singapore after rising 5.3% on Friday. Brent for August delivery fell 0.6% to $37.61 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange.
Unrest in the U.S. is rattling financial markets and “curfews could prove to be a major setback to the country’s reopening and oil demand recovery,” said Vandana Hari, founder of energy consultancy Vanda Insights. “However, the prospect of OPEC+ advancing its meeting and agreeing an extension rather than tapering of the deeper cuts should support crude’s rally this week.”
An earlier OPEC meeting would give the cartel more flexibility to change its current production limits as members usually decide their plans for shipping oil for July in the first week of June. The group’s preference is to take short-term measures on cuts as the situation is changing quickly, the delegate said.
See also: Could OPEC+ Become a Victim of Its Own Success?: Julian Lee
The prospect of an extension of curbs by OPEC+ comes amid indications the alliance is closely following April’s agreement. The coalition – which includes OPEC’s 13 members plus another 10 exporters — has achieved 92% compliance, according to an estimate by data intelligence firm Kpler.
Meanwhile, in more evidence of the supply response in the world’s biggest oil producer, the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. dropped for an 11th consecutive week to the lowest since 2009, according to data from Baker Hughes. Still, there’s a risk that oil’s continued advance could tempt some American producers to turn their taps back on again.
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